Thursday, February 7, 2013

Polls put Clinton, Rubio at top



A new set of Public Policy Polling surveys shows Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio up, nationally. and in Iowa.

Here are voters' preferences, along with favorability ratings on the right.


NATIONAL GOP primary

1. Marco Rubio 22%........Fav rating: 59%/12%.

2. Paul Ryan 15%.............Fav rating: 78%/9%.

3. Chris Christie and Jeb Bush 13%........ Christie fav rating: 42%/27%; Jeb fav rating: 59%/12%.

5. Mike Huckabee 11%....Fav rating: 71%/12%.

6. Rand Paul 10%.............Fav rating: 61%/13%.

7. Bobby Jindal 4%...........Fav rating: 46%/10%.

8. Rick Perry 3%...............Fav rating: 48%/16%.

9. Susana Martinez 1%.......Fav rating: 19%/14%.

A couple things stand out.

a. Look at Paul Ryan's strong performance. Overall, he's not in first place, but his net favorability rating is 22 percentage points higher than Rubio's.

b. It seems that GOP voters are starting to distinguish between Rand Paul and his dad. Look at Rand's strong favorable numbers -- much better than his dad used to get. So this is a surprising sign that his move to mainstream himself could be working fairly quickly.

c. Why is Rick Perry in there but Rick Santorum not?  Santorum is the more likely Rick to run.

d. As I wrote earlier this week, Rubio is winning, thanks to his strength with those calling themselves "very conservative" or "somewhat conservative", while Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are cleaning up the moderate-liberal wing.

IF all those guys run, you could potentially see Rubio and Ryan wrestling for the conservative vote and Jeb and Christie fighting for the moderate-liberal wing.


GOP RACE in IOWA:

1. Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee 16%..... Rubio Fav: 54%/13%; Huck Fav: 64%/22%.

3. Rand Paul 15%...........................................Paul Fav: 55%/19%.

4. Jeb Bush 14%.............................................Jeb Fav: 55%/17%.

5. Chris Christie 12%.......................................Christie Fav: 36%/33%.

6. Paul Ryan 10%............................................Ryan Fav: 63%/16%.

7. Susana Martinez 4%....................................Martinez Fav: 18%/16%.

8. Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry 3%..................Jindal Fav: 43%/11%; Perry 43%/28%.

a. Very few think Huckabee will actually run, so if he passes it up, where does his support go? Well, according to this poll -- oddly enough -- his backers lean toward the moderate wing, which means they'd be more likely to shift into Jeb or Christie's camp.

b. Again, Ryan might not top voter preference, but his net approval numbers are the strongest out there, which is a testament to how likable he's remained -- even in the wake of his ticket's loss.


NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC primary:

1. Hillary Clinton 58%........... Fav rating: 81%/12%.

2. Joe Biden 19%...................Fav rating: 80%/13%.

3. Elizabeth Warren 8%..........Fav rating: 48%/8%.

4. Andrew Cuomo 3%............Fav rating: 37%/17%.

5. Kirsten Gillibrand, Martin O'Malley, and Mark Warner 1%.

8. Brian Schweitzer and Deval Patrick 0%.

A couple things to note:

a. Without Hillary Clinton in the race, Biden takes a 44% lead over Warren, and with neither Hillary nor Biden running, Cuomo leads Warren by 4%.

b. Look at Cuomo's poor favorability number. Sure, he's not very well-known but his unfavorable number is twice Warren's, and her favorable number is 11% higher than his.

In fact, Cuomo has a higher, raw unfavorable (17%) than any other Democrat running, including Hillary and Biden, who are much better known (and, of course, their raw favorable number is much stronger).


DEMOCRATIC RACE in IOWA:

1. Hillary Clinton 68%

2. Joe Biden 21%

3. Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, and Mark Warner 2%

6. Deval Patrick 1%

7. Kirsten Gillibrand and Martin O'Malley 0%

If Hillary bows out, Biden becomes the front-runner with Cuomo moving into second. If neither Hillary nor Biden runs, then Cuomo takes a 9% lead over Warren.

So in a race without Clinton or Biden, it looks like Andrew Cuomo is the leader, both in Iowa and nationally.

Now the part you're all waiting for:

What about NATIONAL head-to-head matchups between Hillary and a host of GOP names?

Predictably, Hillary beats everyone.

a. Hillary 46% Christie 42%

b. Hillary 49% Jeb Bush 43%

c. Hillary 50% Paul Ryan 44%

d. Hillary 49% Rubio 41%