Thursday, February 28, 2013

Ryan, Walker lead in Wisconsin primary


A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Paul Ryan and Scott Walker leading the 2016 GOP pack in their homestate of Wisconsin.

Interestingly, PPP polled a race with a) Ryan and the field and b) Scott Walker with no Ryan.

The assumption is that Paul Ryan and Scott Walker wouldn't both run against each other. Here's a question that's growing ever more intriguing. Who's more likely to run -- Walker or Ryan?

WITH RYAN:

1. Paul Ryan 35%

2. Marco Rubio 22%

3. Chris Christie 10%

4. Rand Paul 8%

5. Mike Huckabee 7%

6. Jeb Bush 5%

7. Bobby Jindal 3%

8. Rick Perry and Susana Martinez 1%

WITHOUT Ryan and WITH Walker:

1. Scott Walker 33%

2. Marco Rubio 27%

3. Chris Christie 10%

4. Mike Huckabee 7%

5. Rand Paul 6%

6. Jeb Bush 5%

7. Bobby Jindal 3%

8. Susana Martinez 2%

9. Rick Perry 0%

Some more interesting numbers:

a. Ryan is drawing his support from both moderate and conservative Republicans. That's different from most states, where he currently runs MUCH better with those calling themselves "very conservative" than moderates.

Obviously, it's probably a name ID/native son thing.

b. As usual, Marco Rubio's strength comes disproportionately from those calling themselves "conservative" or "very conservative."

c. Once again, Christie scores big with those calling themselves moderate-to-liberal Republicans, while he tanks among those calling themselves "very conservative."

To wit: Christie is the choice of 23% of self-described moderates and only 4% of self-described "very conservative" voters.

We've been seeing that dramatic disparity in PPP's other state-based polling.

d. Men are twice as likely to pick Christie as women (14% vs. 7%), while women are twice as likely to pick Huckabee as men (9% vs. 4%).

That underscores Huck's longstanding appeal with women.

e. Rand Paul is over twice as popular with men as with women. Once again, that's not a huge surprise, considering his sharper rhetoric and association with his dad.

f. Rubio scores 22% with both men and women, while Ryan scores moderately higher with women than with men.

g. Christie gets his most support from voters 18-45 years old and his least from senior citizens. Obviously, this is just one data point, but if we start to see a pattern like that, it could be trouble for Chris, considering seniors' disproportionate affect on the GOP primary.

THE DEMOCRATS

Unfortunately, the Democratic race is just much duller than the GOP race, thanks to Hillary's perpetually overwhelming lead, Joe Biden's constant #2, and a lack of name ID for everyone else.

The exception? PPP threw in native son Russ Feingold's name just for kicks, so there's a slight deviation from normal

1. Hillary Clinton 50%

2. Native son Russ Feingold 25%

3. Joe Biden 11%

4. Andrew Cuomo 3%

5. Elizabeth Warren 2%

6. Martin O'Malley and Deval Patrick 1%

8. Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner 0%

See, a lot of fun that was.

Guess who leads with voters 18-45 years-old, 46-65 years-old, and 65+?

Guess who leads with men and women?

There's really nothing to analyze here.

But there are some fun head-to-head numbers against GOP challengers, and once again, Hillary wipes the floor with the R's.

a. Hillary Clinton 52% Marco Rubio 38%

b. Hillary Clinton 51% Paul Ryan 43%

c. Hillary Clinton 54% Scott Walker 41%

So the take-home on that trio is that Republicans shouldn't nominate Walker or Ryan on the premise that they can carry Wisconsin.