Thursday, March 7, 2013

Hillary crushes Rubio

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Marco Rubio trailing Hillary Clinton, 50%-34%, in a hypothetical 2016 matchup.

That sounds terrible for Rubio, but remember -- his name ID isn't high, and Hillary doesn't jump north of 50% in the head-to-head.

Here are some key stats:

a. Hillary tops Rubio among independents, 44%-32%. 

As I wrote earlier, if a Democratic nominee so much as ties the GOP nominee among indies these days, the Dem will win the White House. That's because of the expanding Democratic party and retracting Republican party.

So obviously, this isn't a good number for Rubio, but note that Hillary's well south of the magic 50%.

b. Men pick Hillary, 43%-41%.

If that dynamic persists (which it won't), it's game over.

c. Women prefer Hillary, 56%-28%, while white women prefer Hillary by 15%.

As I wrote earlier, white women have been trending heavily Republican, so if they jump ship for Hillary, it'd be a Dem blowout.

d. Whites without college degrees prefer Hillary.

This is another nightmare number for the GOP. Whites w/out college degrees trend heavily Republican, so Hillary's 1% lead is huge.

But remember, we're dealing with a political icon in Hillary and a junior senator with dry mouth. A lot can/will change in four years, and you can just file this under the "It's fun to read polls four years before the election" category.

Here are some more NOTABLE HEAD-To-HEADS that Quinnipiac polled today:

a. Hillary Clinton 50% Paul Ryan 38%

b. Chris Christie 43% Joe Biden 40%

c. Joe Biden 45% Marco Rubio 38%

d. Joe Biden 45% Paul Ryan 42%

e. Chris Christie 45% Andrew Cuomo 28%

f. Andrew Cuomo 37% Marco Rubio 37%

g. Paul Ryan 42% Andrew Cuomo 37%