Thursday, March 7, 2013

Obama, Democrats struggle with white women

Barack Obama's approval rating with white women is -13%  (photo: Pete Souza)

We hear a ton about Barack Obama and Democrats' problems with white men, don't we?

It's strange, then, that we never hear about their significant problems with white women. But it's very real and very big.

In 2012, Mitt Romney beat Obama among white women by 14% (In 2008, McCain beat Obama by 7%, and in 2004, George W. Bush beat Kerry by 11%).

Despite that, you didn't hear a peep about Obama's struggles with white women in 2012, because that didn't conform to the narrative that women think the Republican party is out to steal their contraceptives and cut their pay.

In fact, Romney doubled McCain's standing with white women.

Let's quickly take a look at how white women voted in the 2012 election -- both nationally and in battleground states, and then talk about a few implications.

2012:

a. NATION: Romney wins white women, 56%-42% over Barack Obama.

b. VIRGINIA: Romney wins white women, 59%-40%.

c. OHIO: Romney wins white women, 53%-46%.

d. FLORIDA: Romney wins white women, 58%-41%.

e. COLORADO: Romney wins white women, 53%-46%.

f. NEVADA: Romney wins white women, 52%-46%.

g. NORTH CAROLINA: Romney wins white women, 67%-33%.

h. PENNSYLVANIA: Romney wins white women, 54%-45%.

i. MICHIGAN: Romney wins white women, 53%-47%.

j. WISCONSIN: Obama wins white women, 53%-46%.

k. NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama wins white women, 56%-43%.

l. IOWA: Obama wins white women, 58%-41%.

In other words, if it were up to white women alone, here's your 2012 battleground state map.



Romney would have collected 126 electoral college votes in the battlegrounds and Obama would have collected 30.

So why don't we hear more about Obama and Democrats' problems with white women? Because the current narrative is easy. White men and their patriarchal mindset war with women. Meanwhile, women revolt and overwhelmingly side with the kinder, gentler party.

But in reality, the gender war is really much quieter than the ethnic divide, and white women and white men are together -- whether it be on Mars or Venus.

The country's real separation is based on ethnicity and marriage. Not gender.

Yet, unfortunately, we're bound to have another four years of chatter about how Republicans have a massive woman problem.